Two weeks ago, oil was quiet. By Thursday it had punched through $100 a barrel. By this morning it had handed a good chunk of that back. Same barrel of crude, three very different prices, depending on the day you happened to look. If your instinct was to do something about it, hold that thought.

What happened

The move up was fast and it was about fear, not fundamentals. Iran-backed Houthis said they attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran for a 13th consecutive day, and shipping insurance costs through the southern Red Sea doubled for some carriers overnight. WTI climbed roughly 11% on the week and about 4.5% on Thursday alone, while Brent settled above $100 for the first time in two months. Mideast producers began drawing up plans to route around the Strait of Hormuz.

Then the story flipped. Over the weekend the US paused its strikes, and Iran said it would suspend attacks as long as that pause holds. The war-risk premium came out of the market almost as quickly as it went in. By Monday morning, Brent had slid around 7.6% toward $89 a barrel and WTI was down about 6.7% near $83. The same headlines that sent oil up on Thursday sent it down on Monday.

Here is the catch, and it matters: this is a fragile pause, not a peace deal. There is no formal agreement, and the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping has not gone away. They claimed fresh strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities at Jizan and Yanbu over the weekend. Expect more headlines, not fewer.

Why a cross-border investor should care

Oil is never just a number at the pump. For a household with money in two countries, an oil shock ripples several ways at once. Energy carries a far heavier weight in the Canadian index than in the S&P 500, so the same barrel moves a Canadian portfolio and a US-tilted one very differently. When crude spiked, energy was the standout gainer on the TSX while most other sectors fell, a reminder that a Canadian sleeve can behave like a hedge in exactly these moments. Crude and the loonie also tend to travel together, so the barrel feeds the currency, and the currency feeds the cost of everything you buy in the other dollar. One commodity, three effects, two countries. That is the connection a single-market lens tends to miss.

The discipline

This is where the trend is your friend, but only if you let it work. Trying to trade each Red Sea headline is a great way to capture all of the volatility and miss most of the return. Someone who guessed the Thursday top looks brilliant for about a weekend, and a broken clock is right twice a day. We run portfolios long-only and systematically precisely so that a single geopolitical spike does not become a reason to abandon a plan. For energy specifically, we lean toward the picks and shovels, the pipelines and infrastructure that get paid whether oil is $80 or $100, rather than betting the plan on the daily price of a barrel. Position sizing beats prediction, every time.

The barrel that traded above $100 on Thursday and near $83 on Monday is the same barrel. What changed was the story around it. Our job is to keep your plan steadier than the headlines. If the past week has you second-guessing your energy exposure, let us walk through it together before the next twist.

Frequently asked questions

Why did oil prices spike and then fall in late July 2026?

Crude jumped above $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and a run of US airstrikes on Iran raised fears about supply. Prices then reversed sharply when the US paused strikes and Iran said it would suspend its attacks, which pulled the war-risk premium back out of the market.

Is the Middle East conflict over?

No. As of this writing it is a pause, not a signed peace deal. The Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping remains, and further flare-ups are possible, so oil is likely to stay headline-driven for a while.

Why does oil matter more for a Canadian portfolio than a US one?

Energy makes up a much larger share of the Canadian index than of the S&P 500. That means a Canadian-weighted portfolio and a US-weighted one can respond to the same oil move in opposite directions, which is a core reason cross-border investors hold both.

How does the price of oil affect the Canadian dollar?

Canada is a major energy exporter, so the loonie and crude often move together. A rising oil price tends to support the Canadian dollar, and a falling one tends to weigh on it, which changes the conversion math on anything you spend in US dollars.

Should I buy or sell energy stocks based on this week’s move?

Not as a reflex. We treat Canadian energy as a long-term holding and favour the infrastructure side of the sector over the daily oil price. Decisions should follow your plan, not the latest headline.

Is this investment advice?

No. This is general information for context. See the disclaimer below and consult a qualified advisor about your own portfolio.

Sources: Raymond James, “the Open” (subscription client newsletter, no public URL) | CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/oil-price-wti-brent-slide-as-iran-reportedly-may-halt-attacks.html | NBC News https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/oil-prices-rise-red-sea-attacks-houthis-saudi-trump-iran-war-rcna588851 | The National https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/07/27/oil-prices-slump-on-pause-in-us-iran-hostilities-despite-houthi-threats/ | Al Jazeera https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/24/as-oil-soars-experts-watch-red-sea-tankers-for-clarity-on-houthi-blockade

This article is for general informational purposes only and reflects market conditions as of July 27, 2026. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice, and it does not account for your personal circumstances. Sartorial Wealth specializes in cross-border financial planning between Canada and the United States; we do not prepare tax returns. Markets and currency levels move quickly, and the figures cited may have changed since publication. Please speak with a qualified advisor before acting on anything here.