The headline and the process On October 1, Prime Minister Mark Carney designated a West Coast oil pipeline, now called...
Articles
Dated market commentary and news analysis for cross-border investors, published alongside the Bespoke Weekly newsletter. Tied to specific events and time-stamped.
Survival Then, Scale Now: Reading Canada’s Energy Consolidation Wave Correctly
The same industry, two very different reasons to sell In March 2017, Shell agreed to sell the bulk of its Canadian oil...
Regime Change, Commitments and Price: A Method for Telling Which Headlines Actually Matter
Everything arrives at the same volumeThree questions, in orderThe regime change: the direction of rates reversedThe...
Three Headlines, One Regime Change: Telling a Structural Shift From Noise
Why the sorting matters more than the summaryThe regime change: from tariffs to bansCanada's answer changed tooThe...
Two Hundred and Fifty to One: The US Estate Tax Gap Between You and Your American Neighbour, and the Treaty Article That Closes It
The cliff that never cameWhat actually counts as a US assetThe filing obligation that arrives even when the tax does...
Thirty Days, One Form, and the Registration Rule Canadians Think Went Away
The rule people think was struck downWho this actually applies toWhat the final rule changedThe biometric change that...
The Cuts Are Not Coming: Rebuilding a Cross-Border Plan Around Rates That Stopped Falling
The assumption almost every plan was quietly built onWhat the Bank of Canada has actually signalledWhy the American...
Ballast No More: What a Rising Term Premium Means for Fixed Income Held in Two Currencies
Thirty years compressed into one numberWhy the world’s largest single investor is rewriting its bond mandateThe...
Elbows Up, Eyes Open: Backing Canadian Industrial Policy Without Doubling a Bet You Already Own
What Ottawa actually committed toThis is a programme, not an announcementThe four ways a Canadian household is already...
Read the Provisions, Not the Headline: What Canadian Bank Q3 Results Say About How Far the Trade War Has Travelled
Six banks reported into the worst week of the trade fightProvisions are the number that actually mattersWhat that...
Two Central Banks, Two Directions, Forty-Eight Hours Apart: What a Widening Rate Gap Does to a Cross-Border Household
What Warsh said, and what it did to the odds overnightWhat the Bank of Canada is walking into on WednesdayThe gap, and...
Eight Days and Counting: What Canada’s September 8 Counter-Tariffs Change for Cross-Border Families and Owners
The negotiation is over. This is the part that costs money.What actually gets more expensive on September 8The GM...
Picks and Shovels North of the Border: Churchill Falls, the AI Power Crunch, and Canada as an Electricity Exporter
Most people experience the AI boom as a short list of ticker symbols. Six or seven American names, one currency, one...
Fifty Percent, Live: What a Collapsed Trade Deal Means for Cross-Border Families and Owners
Most deadlines resolve quietly. This one did not. For three weeks the story was a negotiation. Meetings in Washington,...
Priced for Perfection: Canadian Bank Earnings, Hidden Concentration, and the Portfolio You Did Not Choose
There is a version of this week that writes itself. Six large Canadian banks report quarterly results, most of them...