By Shiraz Ahmed, Sartorial Wealth

Oil just finished a round trip that almost no one would have traded well. During the conflict, crude spiked above $120 a barrel. On Friday, WTI settled below $70 for the first time since February 27, the day before the war began. Same barrel of oil, a wildly different price, depending on the day you looked at it. And then, over the weekend, the story got loud again.

What happened

Crude had been falling all month. After the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the supply fear that had driven oil above $120 began to unwind. More than 20 tankers carrying about 35 million barrels moved through the Strait once the waterway reopened. By Friday, WTI closed below $70, back at pre-war levels, having given back essentially all of its wartime gains. After months of supply anxiety, the market exhaled.

The weekend got loud again

Then the de-escalation was tested. Over the weekend, US Central Command said its fighter jets struck 10 Iranian military targets in and near the Strait of Hormuz, in retaliation for a drone strike on the Panamanian-flagged tanker M/T Kiku, which was carrying more than two million barrels of crude. Iran struck back at US targets in Kuwait and Bahrain. By Sunday, both sides agreed to halt hostilities, keep commercial vessels moving freely through the Strait, and continue technical talks.

Crude edged higher on Monday, with WTI back above $70 and Brent near $73, as traders weighed the truce against the risk that it does not hold. Shipping data showed Middle East producers loading oil and LNG despite the fresh attacks. So the deal is real, but fragile. Expect more headlines, not fewer.

Why a cross-border investor should care

Oil is not just a number at the pump. An unwinding oil shock ripples three ways at once for our clients. It cools the energy-driven inflation that had pushed US prices higher, which feeds straight back into the Federal Reserve story. It moves energy holdings, a meaningful slice of many Canadian portfolios. And it pressures the loonie, because crude and the Canadian dollar tend to travel together. One commodity, three effects, both countries. That is exactly the kind of connection a single-market lens tends to miss.

The discipline

This is where the trend is your friend, but only if you let it work. We run portfolios long-only and systematically for a reason: trying to trade each Iran headline is a great way to capture all of the volatility and miss most of the return. You do not need to catch the exact top or the exact bottom. You need the meat in the middle. For energy specifically, we lean toward the picks and shovels, the pipelines and infrastructure that get paid whether oil is $70 or $90, rather than betting the plan on the daily price of a barrel. Position sizing beats prediction, every time.

The barrel that cost $120 during the war and under $70 on Friday is the same barrel. What changes is the story around it, and this weekend proved the story can still turn quickly. Our job is to keep your plan steadier than the headlines. If the recent swings have you second-guessing your energy exposure, let us walk through it together before the next twist.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did oil fall back below $70?

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased the supply fears that had driven crude above $120 during the conflict. As tankers cleared the Strait and that fear unwound, prices fell back to pre-war levels, with WTI settling below $70 on Friday for the first time since February 27.

What happened over the weekend of June 27 to 28?

The truce was tested. US forces struck 10 Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz after a drone hit a tanker, and Iran struck back at US sites in Kuwait and Bahrain. By Sunday, both sides agreed to halt hostilities, keep the Strait open, and continue talks. Crude edged higher on Monday in response.

Is the US-Iran situation resolved?

No. It is an interim arrangement built on a memorandum of understanding, with a comprehensive deal still to be negotiated. The weekend escalation showed how fragile it is, so more headlines are likely.

Should I sell my energy stocks now that oil has dropped?

Not as a reflex. We treat Canadian energy as a long-term holding and favour the infrastructure side of the sector over the daily oil price. Decisions should follow your plan, not the latest headline.

How does the price of oil affect the Canadian dollar?

Canada is a major energy exporter, so the loonie and crude often move together. Lower oil prices were one of the forces pulling the Canadian dollar toward the low end of its range this month.

Is this investment advice?

No. This is general information for context. See the disclaimer below and consult a qualified advisor about your own portfolio.

Sources

Raymond James, “the Open” (subscription client newsletter, no public URL) | CNBC | CNBC | CNN | Reuters (via Investing.com)

Disclaimer

This article is for general informational purposes only and reflects market conditions as of June 29, 2026. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice, and it does not account for your personal circumstances. Sartorial Wealth specializes in cross-border financial planning between Canada and the United States; we do not prepare tax returns. Markets and currency levels move quickly, and the figures cited may have changed since publication. Please speak with a qualified advisor before acting on anything here.