There is still no new trade deal between Canada and the United States. Formal talks have not even started. And over the weekend, a wildfire-smoke tariff threat got added to the pile. If you are waiting for the trade file to resolve before you make a cross-border plan, you may be waiting a very long time.

So rather than guess at the politics, let us focus on what is actually settled, what is not, and what a family can control.

What happened, and what did not

The trade agreement is not cancelled. When the July 1 review date passed, the United States chose not to renew CUSMA for another sixteen years, which put the deal on an annual-review clock rather than ending it. Day to day, the rules still largely apply. What changed is the tone. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer called Mexico’s approach “pragmatic” while accusing Canada of holding back, and Prime Minister Carney has said Canada will not make more concessions simply to get to the table, insisting it will only sign a real deal. Formal Canada-US negotiations have not begun.

The weekend update

The file got noisier, not calmer. President Trump threatened higher tariffs on Canada tied to wildfire smoke drifting south, and spoke with Prime Minister Carney on the sidelines of a World Cup ceremony. On the other track, Canada and Mexico agreed to work together on lowering auto-tariff exposure to the US, and Mexico’s foreign secretary said Mexico is not looking to cut a side deal that leaves Canada out. Mexico and the US are set for a third round of talks next week, while Canada has yet to start. We will leave the politics to the politicians. The planning point is simpler: the process is open-ended, and open-ended is a condition you can prepare for.

Why this is a cross-border issue

Trade uncertainty is not an abstraction for a cross-border family. It feeds directly into the Canadian dollar, since currency markets price political risk in real time. It shapes sector risk for anyone holding trade-exposed Canadian names in autos, metals, or manufacturing. And it sits underneath the planning assumptions behind a future relocation, a business move, or the timing of when to convert money. “No deal yet” is itself a market condition, and it can persist for months.

How to separate durable rules from annual noise

Most of what governs a cross-border life is more stable than the headlines suggest. The tax treaty, cross-border account rules, and the mechanics of moving between the two countries do not get rewritten on a weekend. What moves is the review process and the tariff rhetoric around specific sectors. The skill is telling the two apart, so you react to changes in the durable rules and tune out the rest.

What to do while the file stays open

1. Separate durable rules from review-cycle noise. Build your plan on the rules that actually govern your accounts and your move, not on the latest tariff headline.
2. Do not wait for a tidy resolution. A good cross-border plan should work whether or not a new deal is signed this year, because it may not be.
3. Stress-test your currency assumptions. If your plan only works at a particular exchange rate, trade uncertainty is a risk you are carrying whether you meant to or not.
4. Size trade-exposed positions deliberately. If you hold Canadian names heavily tied to cross-border trade, decide on that exposure on purpose rather than discovering it on a headline.

An open-ended trade file is uncomfortable, but discomfort is not the same as danger. The families who navigate this well are not the ones who correctly predict the next tariff. They are the ones whose plan does not depend on the prediction. Does yours?

Frequently asked questions

Is CUSMA cancelled?

No. When the July 1, 2026 review passed, the United States declined to renew the deal for another sixteen years, which put it on an annual-review track rather than ending it. The agreement remains in effect, and most of its rules still apply.

What does an annual review of the trade deal mean?

It means the three countries revisit the agreement each year instead of locking it in for a long fixed term. That creates more frequent opportunities for changes and negotiation, which is a source of ongoing uncertainty rather than an immediate end to the deal.

Will there be new tariffs between Canada and the United States?

It is unsettled. There have been threats, including one tied to wildfire smoke, and sector-specific negotiations are ongoing, but formal Canada-US talks had not started as of mid-July 2026. The prudent approach is to plan for a range of outcomes rather than assume one.

How does trade uncertainty affect the Canadian dollar?

Currency markets price political and trade risk quickly, so an unresolved trade file can add volatility to the loonie. That matters for cross-border families because it changes the value of transfers and conversions between Canadian and US dollars.

Should cross-border families change their plans because of the trade noise?

The better move is usually to build a plan that does not depend on a tidy trade resolution in the first place. Focus on the durable rules that govern your accounts and your move, and treat the tariff headlines as noise to manage, not signals to react to.

Sources: Raymond James, “the Open” (subscription client newsletter, no public URL) | The Globe and Mail https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-must-be-ready-to-cut-a-usmca-deal-if-one-arises-carney-says/ | CNBC https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/trump-usmca-canada-mexico-trade-treaty.html | CBC https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cusma-usmca-july-1-canada-us-mexico-trade-trump-tariffs-9.7253789 | CNBC (wildfire tariffs) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/17/trump-canada-wildfire-tariffs.html | Global News https://globalnews.ca/news/11812024/mark-carney-cusma-talks/

The information provided by Sartorial Wealth Inc. is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.