Oil just took us on a round trip. During the conflict, crude spiked above $120 a barrel. As of this week, Brent is back near $80, having given back almost all of its wartime gains. Same barrel of oil. Wildly different price, depending on the day you looked at it.
If you want this reflected in how a portfolio is built, see our cross-border investment management service.
What happened
On June 18 the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, toll-free, for at least 60 days. Crude went into freefall. WTI dropped 4.2% in a single session and oil fell roughly 13% over four sessions, leaving it about a third below its wartime peak. Goldman Sachs cut its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 from $90. After months of supply fear, the market exhaled.
The weekend did not make it simple
By Monday, the picture had gotten messier, not cleaner. Follow-up US-Iran talks in Switzerland were delayed, raising doubts about how durable the deal really is. President Trump warned of renewed strikes unless Iran reins in its proxies in Lebanon, and warned Tehran against closing the Strait again. At the same time, an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is reportedly set to begin, which could clear a path toward broader peace. Brent was hovering near $79 to $80 to start the week. So the deal is real, but fragile. Expect more headlines, not fewer.
Why a cross-border investor should care
Oil is not just a number at the pump. An unwinding oil shock ripples three ways at once for our clients. It cools the energy-driven inflation that had pushed US prices higher, which feeds straight back into the Federal Reserve story. It moves energy holdings, a meaningful slice of many Canadian portfolios. And it pressures the loonie, because crude and the Canadian dollar tend to travel together. One commodity, three effects, both countries. That is the kind of connection a single-market lens tends to miss.
The discipline
This is where the trend is your friend, but only if you let it work. We run portfolios long-only and systematically for a reason: trying to trade each Iran headline is a great way to capture all of the volatility and miss most of the return. You do not need to catch the exact top or bottom. You need the meat in the middle. For energy specifically, we lean toward the picks and shovels, the pipelines and infrastructure that get paid whether oil is $70 or $90, rather than betting the plan on the daily price of a barrel. Position sizing beats prediction, every time.
The barrel that cost $120 during the war and $80 this week is the same barrel. What changes is the story around it. Our job is to keep your plan steadier than the headlines. If recent swings have you second-guessing your energy exposure, let us walk through it together before the next twist.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did oil prices fall so much in June 2026?
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased the supply fears that had driven crude above $120 during the conflict. As that fear unwound, prices fell back toward $80.
How far has oil fallen from its peak?
Brent is trading near $80, roughly a third below its wartime peak above $120, having given back almost all of the gains it made during the conflict.
Is the US-Iran deal permanent?
No. It is an interim agreement. Follow-up talks were delayed, tensions flared again over the weekend, and the durability of the deal is still an open question.
Should I sell my energy stocks now that oil has dropped?
Not as a reflex. We treat Canadian energy as a long-term holding and favour the infrastructure side of the sector over the daily oil price. Decisions should follow your plan, not the latest headline.
How does the price of oil affect the Canadian dollar?
Canada is a major energy exporter, so the loonie and crude often move together. Lower oil prices were one of the forces pulling the Canadian dollar lower this month.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is general information for context. See the disclaimer below and consult a qualified advisor about your own portfolio.
Sources: Raymond James, “the Open” (subscription client newsletter, no public URL) | NBC News (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/deal-reached-united-states-iran-war-rcna350039) | CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/06/18/strait-hormuz-reopening-shipping-oil.html) | Fortune (https://fortune.com/article/price-of-oil-06-22-2026/) | Trading Economics (https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil)
This article is for general informational purposes only and reflects market conditions as of June 22, 2026. It is not investment, tax, or legal advice, and it does not account for your personal circumstances. Sartorial Wealth specializes in cross-border financial planning between Canada and the United States; we do not prepare tax returns. Markets and currency levels move quickly, and the figures cited may have changed since publication. Please speak with a qualified advisor before acting on anything here.
0 Comments